Polymarket Hints at Token Airdrop

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Good Morning.

Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $80K, and the mood across the market is undeniably positive. However, while enthusiasm reigns in the broader crypto space, prediction markets are experiencing a decline in volume and open interest following the conclusion of the US election. It appears that, as expected, the end of such major events shifts attention elsewhere, with the market dynamics settling into a new phase.

In Today's Email:

• What Matters: Polymarket Hints at Token Airdrop 🪂 

• Product: Inversion Capital: Modernizing Businesses with Crypto 🔁 

• Charts: Polymarket 64% Drop in OI 📉, Bitcoin ETF Hits Record $1.4B Inflows 📈 

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WHAT MATTERS

Polymarket Hints at Token Airdrop

State of play: Polymarket is reportedly hinting at a potential token airdrop. Although the platform has yet to confirm specific token launch plans, it has teased "future drops" for users who reinvest winnings.

• Polymarket’s popularity has surged, especially around the 2024 US presidential election, with $3.6B in betting volume and over 166M users in November.

• Polymarket saw a 64% drop in open interest following the US presidential election.

• Polymarket’s open interest plummeted from $510M on November 5th to $184M by November 8th.

What’s next: With the election over, Polymarket faces challenges in maintaining user interest, potentially shifting focus to other markets like crypto or geopolitical events.

For builders and investors: An airdrop campaign might temporarily boost volume. But in the long term, prediction markets need to diversify beyond political betting, focusing on emerging markets like crypto and geopolitical

Take a peek at our referral reward at the bottom of this issue. Share this newsletter and receive our list of 500 crypto VC individuals 👇

PRODUCT OF THE WEEK

Inversion Capital Launches to Modernize Businesses with Crypto

Santiago Roel Santos, former ParaFi Capital partner, has launched Inversion Capital, a private equity fund focused on acquiring traditional businesses and enhancing them through crypto-powered tools.

• The fund intends to acquire companies directly, focusing on those that would benefit from crypto-enabled improvements in efficiency, cost reduction, and streamlined operations.

• Santos views crypto as a “new operating system” that, although largely invisible, can address common business challenges such as high operational costs and complex coordination.

• Inversion Capital will target established businesses that are primed for this technological transformation, aiming to unlock their potential through a complete crypto makeover.

Other cool products:

• Terminus, a new TON clicker game.

• SEIYARA, a farm simulation game on Sei.

• Heeve, an NFT marketplace on Base and Arbitrum.

• Aqua Patina, a fully decentralized, Liquid ReStaking platform.

• Hana Network, a hypercasual finance with social network effects.

CHARTS OF THE WEEK

Polymarket Sees 64% Drop in Open Interest After US Election

State of play: Polymarket’s open interest dropped 64% from $510.95M on Nov. 5 to $184.16M by Nov. 8 following the U.S. presidential election, in which Donald Trump was elected.

• The decline reflects users redeeming winnings as the election ended, impacting the platform's biggest prediction market.

• Polymarket now faces the challenge of retaining user engagement beyond political betting.

• Despite allegations of market manipulation by a trader betting heavily on Trump, Polymarket’s CEO defended the platform’s integrity.

Our take: Polymarket's 64% drop in OI post-election highlights the platform's reliance on political markets. As political betting wanes, Polymarket must diversify its offerings to sustain user engagement.

Bitcoin ETF Hits Record $1.4B Inflows

State of play: US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a historic $1.4B daily inflow on Friday last week, largely driven by BlackRock's IBIT, which accounted for $1.1B.

• The surge followed IBIT’s record $4B daily trading volume and lifted its assets under management to $33.2B, surpassing BlackRock’s go

  ld ETF.

• Analysts attribute the inflows to investor confidence boosted by BlackRock's reputation, recent bitcoin gains, and favourable conditions.

• Trump’s election win and a Fed rate cut both fueled a crypto market rally.

Our take: Record inflows into the US spot Bitcoin ETFs signal growing institutional confidence in crypto. With IBIT surpassing BlackRock's gold ETF, bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation and market uncertainty.

QUICK BITES

• Bitcoin sets ATH price above $80,000.

• Dogecoin skyrockets to highest price since 2021.

• BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF just passed its gold fund in assets.

• Dune acquires smlXL to expand real-time blockchain data offering.

• Polymarket open interest drops 64% after US presidential election.

• Polymarket said to tease token launch, stating 'we predict future drops.'

• Mt. Gox-linked cold wallet moves over $2B worth of Bitcoin to new address.

NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME

• Hitesh’s read on A Launchpad Alpha.

• Crypto Koryo’s read on Defi Renaissance.

• Tom Wan’s read on Ethereum ETFs with Staking: What Could it.

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Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.