Making Sense of MCaps and FDVs
Polychain Ex-GP Side Deal | L2 Deposits Hit Yearly Low
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Good Morning.
Todayās issue might be a tad bit shorter as Iām running around Brussels while trying not to get robbed. Anyway, letās get to it.
In Today's Email:
What Matters: Ethereum L2 Deposits Hits Yearly Low š
Case Study: How to Make Sense of Mcaps and FDVs āļø
Governance & Features: Jupiterās Ape Vault š
You read and share. We listen and improve. Send us feedback at [email protected].
Narratives: Relax for a bit and pay attention to macro PA..
For more & quicker alpha (narratives, airdrops, trading strategies), check out our telegram.
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TOGETHER WITH
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WHAT MATTERS
Ethereum Layer 2 Rollups Deposits Hits Yearly Low
State of play: The number of unique depositors into Ethereum Layer 2 rollups hit a yearly low this week at 34,920 users.
Unique depositors to ETH L2s last week was ~52000
Unique depositors to ETH L2s on April was ~250,000
Total combined TVL in all optimistic and ZK rollups is currently around $20 billion
Whatās next: With the surge of rollups launching in the market, we will soon see what the impact of this is on the market.
Why it matters: New rollups will need to differentiate themselves to attract builders and users.
What will they do if they donāt have any technical/commercial edges, and their incentives run out?
Our take: Popular apps that becomes an L2 will be in a better position than L2s that start as a chain.
For builders and investors: Pay attention to how these L2s and rollups try and differentiate themselves, especially after airdrops and token incentives run dry.
Do they still have a sticky user base and supportive community?
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CASE STUDY
How to Make Sense of Mcaps and FDVs
Credits to @ZeMariaMacedo for the tweet
The most important factor in comparing FDVs is figuring out what % of the tokenās FDV is unrealised profits for investors/team.
The higher the %, the worse it is for token holders who buys at the open market.
Jose broke down some of his findings on the secondary markets:
Most newly launch tokens have very little bids even at ~70% below market price (these are SAFTs with 1 yr cliff + 2/3 year vesting)
Bid volumes are at $100m vs future supply unlocks at ~$10B+
āBullish Unlocksā usually happen when the unrealised gains to market cap ratio (UG2MC) is low.
Unrealised gains can be calculated from knowing the ācostsā. Teams have 0 cost basis. Early investors cost basis is calculated from the valuation of the round they invested at.
Most projects are trading at 4-8x UG2MC, i.e. 4-8x of the projectās circulating MC is unrealised gains for insiders, hidden in the āFDVā.
Projects usually float at 5-15%. Assuming a 3 year vest, this means every 4-6 months thereās an entire MC worth of value that is unlocked for people to sell.
Take a peek at our referral reward at the bottom of this issue. Share this newsletter and receive our list of 500 crypto VC individuals š
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INSIGHTS
Decentralised AI Market Map
Credits to @caseykcaruso for the market map.
Casey from Topology VC (early-stage frontier tech firm investing in AI, decentralised systems and neurotech) released a crowdsourced market map of Decentralised AI.
This is broken down into 8 different categories - Data, Applications, Model Creation & Fineturing, Agents, Privacy, Coordination Layers, Compute, and Inference Networks.
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FEATURES & GOVERNANCE UPDATE
Jupiterās Ape Vault
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Leading Solana DEX aggregator Jupiter has launched Ape, a memecoin vault thatās designed to make it easier and safer to trade meme coins.
Only your wallet can access the secure vault.
Thereās a token discovery feature that lets you see tokens as soon as they are launched, alongside their safety profile.
Ape will automatically optimize the trades by dynamically setting slippage and re-trying transactions if needed.
Ape is still in alpha.
During the alpha period, the fee will only be 0.069%.
Other notable feature updates:
DeBank goes live with XP claim.
Trader Joe boosts incentives.
SuperBoring launches on Base.
Wormhole introduces native USDT.
ParaSwap announces ParaSwap Delta.
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QUICK BITES
Germany sells another $339M in BTC.
Bitcoin sees a surge in new addresses.
Zodia Custody partners with Maple Finance.
Leah Wald steps up at Cypherpunk Holdings.
Messi promotes obscure meme coin on Instagram.
Ethereum L2 sees a yearly low in unique depositors.
BlackRockās BUIDL surpasses $500M in market value.
TON plans to release a new L2 based on Polygonās tech.
Kulipa partners with Mastercard and Argent on a debit card.
PayPal PYUSD surpasses $500M following Solana expansion.
Arkham CEO anticipates monetizing the platform later this year.
Worldcoin launches World Chain developer preview ahead of mainnet.
Polychainās ex-GP made an undisclosed side deal.
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NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME
Flashbots should offer a free shuttle or taxi service in Brussels to get people around and call it Flashbots Protect. Keep people from getting robbed in both the mempool and real life.
ā Gwart (@GwartyGwart)
10:43 AM ā¢ Jul 9, 2024
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