JPM: GBTC $2.7B Outflow Expected

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Good Morning. Welcome back from the long weekend. I’m glad that the market didn’t dump — don’t need another [insert your crypto skeptic question] from a relative across the dinner table.

Also, TerraClassic (yes, that dreaded UST), soared 300% after the Do Kwon extradition news was out. This is why crypto is the best asset class.

In Today's Email:

• What Matters: JPM: $2.7B GBTC outflows 🌊

• Products: eesee, NFT-social 📱

• Charts: Metaplex revenue, TON trading volume 📈

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WHAT MATTERS

JPMorgan: $2.7B GBTC Outflows Expected

State of play: JPMorgan estimates a potential $2.7B outflow for GBTC post-ETF conversion, this forecast stems from traders speculating on GBTC while it traded at a discount to its net asset value.

• Throughout the year, traders have purchased GBTC shares at a discount, anticipating profits if it converts to a spot bitcoin ETF.

• Analysts at JPM suggest that GBTC traders might sell shares worth around $2.7B upon its ETF conversion, based on 2023 inflows.

• The GBTC discount to its net asset value (NAV) is under 10% for the first time since July 2021.

What’s next: JPMorgan says a full $2.7B outflow from GBTC could pressure bitcoin prices — but expect a modest impact if funds shift to new spot bitcoin ETFs post-SEC approval.

Our take: The upside of having clarity around a spot Bitcoin ETF will outweigh any short-term outflow or sell pressure.

For builders and investors: I won’t bore you. A spot Bitcoin ETF in the US simply means that it’s easier for money to flow into Bitcoin → eventually other altcoins → eventually onchain liquidity.

• It provides clarity for emerging asset managers, even those who are TradFi-focused, to differentiate their offerings by focusing on offering crypto products.

Take a peek at our referral reward at the bottom of this issue. Share this newsletter and receive our list of 500 crypto VC individuals 👇

PRODUCTS OF THE WEEK

Eesee, Gamified NFTFi & SocialFi Platform

eesee is a gamified NFTFi & SocialFi platform that boosts digital asset sales, enhances liquidity, supports artists, lowers Web3 entry costs, and promotes mass adoption with its unique protocol.

• eesee combines content creation with a marketplace for NFTs.

• Users can mint, sell, and trade their own NFTs with collectors, fans, and other creators.

• eesee supports various types of NFTs, such as static, animated, interactive, and generative.

• eesee is currently in its alpha testing phase.

• eesee has a native token called ESE, it is the preferred currency for transactions on the platform and will be used as currency for fees and creators incentivization.

Other cool products:

• Voyager, a Starknet explorer

• Ordinalscan, a BTC ordinals explorer

• findmyens, the world’s first ENS name generator

• Vaultody, a custodial solution for managing digital assets

• WeMeta, a user database for cross-chain apps, digital and physical

CHARTS OF THE WEEK

Metaplex Generated $200K/Week From Fees

State of play: According to Dune Dashboard by @ilemi, Metaplex generated ~24K SOL (~$662K) on average from fees per week in November.

• @0xMert_ pointed out the trend and compared the fees generated from other Solana NFT marketplaces (i.e., Magic Eden & Tensor).

• @0xMert found that Metaplex generated more fees compared to Magic Eden and Tensor, combined.

• Magic Eden generated ~1.7K SOL ($~96K) while Tensor generated (~1.4 SOL) on average from fees per week in November, according to another Dune Dashboard by @ilemi.

Our take: Metaplex is the true definition of the “picks and shovels business”. It provides the infrastructure necessary for NFT projects, both collections and marketplaces, to build their offerings.

• We can see this resulted in a much stronger moat and business model defensibility in comparison to pure-play NFT marketplaces such as Magic Eden and Tensor.

TON Hit $51B in Trading Volume

State of play: OurNetwork reported that TON's monthly trading volume soared to 21.7B $TON in October, equivalent to $51B at the current value.

• Users can settle micropayments using TON and store or trade assets without leaving Telegram.

• TON is owned by Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram, the app with 800M of monthly active users.

• TON has a stable user base of 20K-30K and a monthly average of 6M txs.

Our take: Telegram is the leading backer of TON. The messaging app has integrated a self-custodial wallet into its platform, enhancing TON's potential for widespread adoption among its ~800M MAU.

QUICK BITES

• Bitmex halts trading in Thailand

• DYDX to unlock $500M worth of tokens.

• Binance CZ argues that he isn’t a flight risk.

• KyberSwap offers a 10% bounty to the hacker.

• Circle seeks to expand USDC's presence in Japan.

• JPMorgan says GBTC could see $2.7B of outflows.

• SEC has trouble serving Hex founder Richard Heart.

• Cosmos approves capping ATOM inflation rate at 10%.

• Paradigm releases a statement regarding the Blast launch.

• Do Kwon will be extradited to either South Korea or the US.

NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME

• Decentralised’s read on interoperability for private chains.

• ChainArgos’ read on Binance, Rubles, the FCA, and failed KYC.

• @casparschwa’s read on why timing games are bad for Ethereum.

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